Ballistic Acceleration Model

BTC Price
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MSTR Price
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Model Price
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MSTR is
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This chart shows how MicroStrategy's share price could grow based on the historical relationship between BTC and MSTR.
Read the article MSTR: The Ballistic Acceleration Model by Marty Kendall to understand how it works. Not financial advice.

Max BTC price:
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Estimated vs actual MSTR price

This chart shows how well the estimated MSTR price compares with the actual price over time.

days
Deviation from estimated price: Positive values (green) indicate the stock is trading above model price (potentially overbought), while negative values (red) indicate trading below model price (potentially oversold).
Average Deviation
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Current Deviation
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Model performance

This shows the actual average MSTR price compared to its estimate at each given BTC price interval. The intervals are also shown in the table below, but here we use the midpoint of each interval. Spots with no bars mean there has not been any days with the MSTR share price in that BTC range yet.

BTC vs MSTR Price Comparison

BTC Price Range Analysis ($10K to Max)

This shows BTC price in $1K intervals, with the estimated MSTR price at the midpoint of each interval. We then calculate the actual MSTR price on days when the price was in that interval to see how well the model has performed.

* Grayed out rows indicate no MSTR data available for that BTC price range

BTC Price Range Actual Avg MSTR Estimated MSTR % Deviation # of Days # BTC Days